CELLULAR AUTOMATA SPATIAL MODELLING FOR AGRICULTURE LAND COVER CHANGE IN KARAWANG REGENCY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21837/pm.v24i42.2066Keywords:
Land use change, Cellular Automata, Karawang, agriculture land conversion, Spatial modelingAbstract
Rapid urbanization in Karawang Regency poses a significant threat to agricultural sustainability. This study analyses land cover changes from 2009 to 2017 and predicts future transitions for 2021, 2026, and 2031 using Cellular Automata (CA) modelling in IDRISI TerrSet. The model was validated using a Kappa Index of Agreement (KIA) by comparing the 2021 simulation with official SPOT 7 satellite imagery, yielding a high accuracy of 0.9328. Results indicate a consistent decline in paddy fields, which are projected to decrease to 105,416.28 ha by 2031. Conversely, settlements and built-up land show a sharp upward trend, nearly doubling from 20,153.09 ha in 2009 to a projected 38,016.63 ha in 2031. These findings highlight the increasing pressure of urban expansion on productive agricultural land, necessitating stricter spatial planning policies to safeguard regional food security in alignment with the 2011–2031 Spatial Plan (RTRW).
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